Overview
The poll shows Reform UK ‘neck-and-neck’ with the Conservative party
Good morning. Andy Burnham and Kemi Badenoch are both preparing for their party conferences (next week, and the following week, respectively), and this morning YouGov has released a new MRP poll with encouraging news for both of them. Polling is very good at revealing electoral trends, but a lot less good at predicting electoral outcomes, and wise politicians don’t treat them as gospel. But they also find polling impossible to ignore, not least because it shapes the landscape within which parties operate. A leader expecting to win the next election acts differently from one expecting to lose it.
And would Burnham win an election held now? Not exactly, according to the YouGov figures, but Labour would be the largest party. Here is YouGov’s summary of its results.
Details
-Labour would be the largest party in a hung parliament, were an election held tomorrow, winning 241 seats in our model’s central estimates
-Such a result would be a net loss of 170 seats for Labour on the 2024 election, but is up from our MRP this time last year, which projected the party would be reduced to just 144 seats and showed Reform UK within touching distance of a majority
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Originally published at www.theguardian.com.